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lunedì 26 settembre 2022


 The Euro retreated last week after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of Russian military reserves and renewed threats to halt energy exports.

The Euro plummeted last week, crashed by a hawkish Fed and developments in the Ukrainian crisis. The EUR/USD pair tumbled below the strong parity level support and below the support at the 0.987 level, closing near 0.968 on Friday. If the EUR/USD declines further it may find support near 0.961 and further down at the 0.845 level representing the 2002 low. If the currency pair goes up, it may encounter resistance at 1.019 and further up at 1.036. 

The Euro retreated last week after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of Russian military reserves from civilian conscripts. Putin also renewed threats to halt energy exports and threatened western allies with nuclear action. A risk aversion sentiment prevailed, driving down riskier assets such as the Euro. 

Europe is facing an energy crisis driven by the EU’s dependency on Russian energy. High energy costs in the Eurozone are driving the Euro down, while inflationary pressures mount. Eurozone inflation hit a record high of 9.1% in August on an annual basis, as price pressures increased despite the fall in global fuel prices. Inflation in the EU is expected to rise even further in the following months, possibly reaching double digits, driven by the high cost of energy in the Eurozone. Increased price pressures are forcing the ECB to take swift action to tackle inflation. 

The Euro retreated even further after a hawkish Fed policy meeting and statement boosted the dollar. The US Federal Reserve voted to raise its interest rate by 75 basis points last week to curb soaring US inflation rates. In its latest monetary policy meeting, the ECB raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, hiking its deposit rate to 0.75% from zero. Hawkish ECB rhetoric has propped up the Euro, with ECB officials pointing at further rate hikes this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered another hawkish speech on Tuesday, pointing to further rate hikes.

French and German Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI, as well as Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI, released last week, were overall in line with expectations. The PMI data showed contraction in these two important sectors for the Eurozone, compared to last month’s data. EU economic activity is shrinking putting pressure on the Euro.

At the start of the week, markets are expected to be still in the grip of the recent Fed and BOE monetary policy meetings, absorbing the implications of continued monetary tightening. Market participants will follow closely ECB members’ speeches this week for hints into the future monetary policy of the EU Central Bank. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speeches on Monday and Wednesday may generate some volatility for the currency in the wake of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting last week. The aftermath of the Italian Parliamentary elections on Sunday may also be felt by the Euro at the start of the week.

EURUSD 1hr chart


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