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lunedì 25 maggio 2020

Blow to Bitcoin as Latest BofA Survey Finds Loopholes in “Bear Market Rally”

  • Bitcoin and traditional markets logged a synchronous rally after crashing almost in tandem in March 2020.
  • But the recovery has not impressed a vast majority of global fund managers, according to a survey conducted by the Bank of America.
  • Only 1 out of 10 fund managers believe that the U.S. economy will register a V-shaped recovery, putting cold waters over Bitcoin’s bullish aspects as well.
Bitcoin’s breakneck bounce off its March 13 lows transformed into a full-fledged rally, eking up to 161.25 percent gains in just two months. But the cryptocurrency’s wild rebound may have many loopholes, according to the outcome of a recent Bank of America’s survey.
The banking giant polled 223 fund managers and found that only 10 percent of them expect a V-shaped recovery for the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, others rubbished the stock market’s recovery since March by calling it a “bear market rally” – signaling that its bounce was strong but lacked real catalysts.
The survey did not mention Bitcoin anywhere, but its outcome concerned the cryptocurrency’s performance in the coming quarters.
bitcoin, cryptocurrency, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd, dow jones, dji
BTCUSD and DJI correlation since March 2020 | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase
It is because both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market crashed and recovered almost in sync over the past two months, driven by the same set of catalysts, including a virus pandemic and central banks’ stimulus packages in response to the financial crisis the virus outbreak caused.

Common Catalysts

Ninety percent of fund managers saw the stock market recovery as abnormal, noting that its gains surfaced despite a floor of contrary data. That includes the rising number of unemployment claims, as well as lower corporate earnings of the companies listed across the top three Wall Street indices.
Financial Times quoted Mike Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, saying that he sees a V-shaped recovery because the Federal Reserve was willing to do print as much money as it can to save the U.S. economy. His contrarians, on the other hand, said that depleting balance sheets of corporate America would lead to more layoffs.
All the factors could mean that recovery would be lengthy and more painful.

Bitcoin and V-Shape Recovery

Many crypto observers treat a stock market downturn as bullish for a “safe-haven” Bitcoin. But the cryptocurrency appears to have a mind of its own. Barring some days, it follows the Wall Street indices to its gains and losses. That is troubling when investors anticipate another wave of virus infections as the economy reopens amid the outbreak.
A crash in the stock market allows investors to offload other assets to cover their losses for cash liquidity. That puts Bitcoin, which is sitting the best yearly profits so far, under risks of extreme downside corrections.
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Yashu Gola
Yashu Gola is a Mumbai-based finance journalist. He is profoundly active in the bitcoin space since 2014 – and has contributed to several cryptocurrency media outlets, including NewsBTC, FxDailyReport, Bitcoinist, and CCN...

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