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martedì 17 dicembre 2019

Why a Top Analyst Thinks Bitcoin Price Could Fall By 20% Before Bottoming

On Monday, the Bitcoin (BTC) price started to falter. After trading above $7,000 for days on end — a consolidation that forced volatility levels to hit multi-month lows— the cryptocurrency slipped on Monday morning, falling from $7,100 to $6,800 in three five-minute candles, catching many traders with their proverbial pants down.
Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency remains above key supports in the $6,000 region — an area of utmost importance during the 2018 bear market, acting as a “make or break” level for Bitcoin — a top analyst claims that the pain is not over yet.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Gap Exists at $11,800; Can Bulls Fill the Gap?

Bitcoin Still Has Potential to Drop 20%

According to a recent update from Jacob Canfield, a professional cryptocurrency trader, Bitcoin is not yet near a macro bottom in his eyes. He remarked that the cryptocurrency is likely to see a 20% drawdown from the current level of $6,900 to $5,500, for there is where the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from $3,100 to $14,000 lies.
What price do you guys have for the bottom on this downtrend?

I think we could see $5500 personally as it is the 78.6% from the swing low to swing high, but we may see a bounce or two in between here and there.
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Canfield’s analysis that a move to $5,500 could be had corroborates a similar thought from trader CryptoBirb, who noted that Bitcoin still is likely to see one final dump to $5,400-$5,600, which he also pointed out coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci.
Birb added that this drawdown would validate a trend seen in previous market cycles, which saw BTC see a short-term bearish though macro bullish throwback to key support prior to a resumption of a parabolic uptrend.
There’s also Cold Blooded Shiller, a trader who recently suggested that the leading cryptocurrency’s chart suggests that a bottom is not yet in: “From a volume perspective, there is nothing to me that screams “THIS IS THE BOTTOM.” For both markdowns and markups we typically expect to see ‘climactic’ volume,” he wrote.
One other clue that we use to determine this, especially in channels, is the ability for price to leave the channel on these climaxes. See here for the example of when it hit the top after it's markup.

Price leaves the channel
Volume is huge
Wyckoff clues say top
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This is what I'd like (and expect to see):

Price coming out of the markdown channel (downside)
Large volume increase (creating an anomaly against prior volume)

That brings us on to the final piece of information we can use in this set up.
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See Cold Blooded Shiller's other Tweets
Related Reading: Despite 50% Crash, Bitcoin Still Up 96% in 2019; Can Bulls Maintain Uptrend?

Is Macro Uptrend Still Intact? 

While a move back to the $5,000s could be had, many researchers have asserted that the macro uptrend for the Bitcoin market remains intact.
Hans Hauge, a senior quantitative researcher at Los Angeles-based crypto fund Ikigai Asset Management, recently gave a confluence of reasons why he remains bullish on the leading cryptocurrency.
The Ikigai analyst first drew attention to a chart from Deutsche Bank, the 17th largest bank in the world. It was estimated that the number of users of Blockchain Wallet (blockchain.com) could surmount over 200 million — around six times higher than where the sum currently is — by 2030. Hauge also looked to the fact that the CEO of Bakkt has just become a U.S. Senator, meaning that Bitcoin could get its own cheerleader in Washington.
Related Reading: XRP Price Ready to See Strong Move; What Are Analysts Thinking?

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